A 2020 Vision: A Ten Year Plan
to Deal with Climate Change and Solve our Financial Crisis
Humanity at the Precipice
Humanity is standing on the edge of a precipice. We are in a time of collapse, a time of urgent crisis, and a time when the only way to survive is to reinvent who we are. The urgency of our situation cannot be overstated.
In the Fall of 2008, we slammed into the limits of our ability to manage the complexity of our financial, economic and environmental systems. This failure started in the United States and quickly spread throughout the world, generating a global financial and economic crisis. As the situation continues to deteriorate, virtually none of our national leaders have offered either a comprehensive analysis of what is happening or an overarching solution that addresses the magnitude of the problem. What we see instead is a lack of the moral leadership required to rescue either the U.S. or the world economy from ruinous collapse. Thus we drift deeper into chaos.
What is needed is vision, courage and the willingness to act decisively. Who will lead and along what path is the most crucial question of our time.
The Collapse of Free Market Capitalism
The governments of the G8 in particular, but also numerous other nations, are foundering because they think that if they throw enough money at their banks, they can save the system. But they cannot. We are not in a crisis in the system, we are in a crisis of the system. What is collapsing is not simply Lehman Brothers and our major financial institutions. What is collapsing is free market capitalism itself. To understand this is to understand the gravity of our crisis and the profound opportunities that are inherent in our predicament.
We are in fact experiencing the collapse of the two major economic systems born of the Industrial Revolution: communism and capitalism. Fifteen years ago, communism collapsed because it was not economically realistic. It so perverted human relations and so ignored economic realities that it imploded. Free market capitalism is now collapsing because it has not been ecologically realistic. It has completely distorted its relationship with the environment and forgotten that the purpose of the free market, as Adam Smith himself pointed out, should not simply be the aggregation of wealth into the hands of the few but the generation of goods and services for the many.
The ecological distortions of capitalism, combined with massive population growth and the sophistication of science and technology, have been so egregious that the world today literally groans under the stresses of too many people, too much exploitation of the environment, and the complete insensitivity of our governing elites to the planetary effects of our political economies. Since World War II, the human population has consumed more of the world’s resources than the rest of human history combined, and has done so with virtually no conscience concerning the consequences to either planet or community. We have been content simply to “let the markets decide.” Our croplands are now decimated, our fisheries depleted, our forests dwindling, our water impure, our air polluted, and half the human population, over 3 billion people, live in dire poverty. Over 35,000 children die of completely preventable water and food related diseases every twenty four hours.
And yet the engines of free enterprise, supported by ever more complex investment strategies and sophisticated technologies, and enjoying total government support, just keep going, just keep producing, just keep exploiting, and all largely for the sake of generating more and more wealth for fewer and fewer people. Never in the history of the world has there been such a gap between rich and poor, never such a distortion of the relationship between human beings and the earth, never more of an insensitivity to the fact that we are creatures of the planet we are destroying.
The supreme irony is that just as free market capitalism thought it had “defeated” communism and had been embraced by virtually the entire world under the guise of “neo-liberalism,” and “globalization,” heralded as the wave of the future, it has also imploded. And it is collapsing, like communism did, not because of enemies without but because of corruption within, catalyzed by one crucially important new factor: the earth herself is now striking back, forcing the implosion, and this, even more than our economic woes, demands our attention.
The Escalating Crisis of Climate Change
The Industrial Revolution was ignited and free market capitalism was galvanized by the burning of fossil fuels. Beginning in Britain in the mid seventeenth century, we have taken the residue of plants, compressed for millions of years and transformed into coal and oil, and burned them without reverence to fuel our factories, produce our goods, light our homes, and power our cars, such that the burning of fossil fuels have become the very basis of our modernity. The net result is that we have been spewing into the atmosphere extraordinary amounts of carbon dioxide. We currently do so at a rate of about 32 billion tons per year. This has caused a dramatic increase in the in CO2 in the atmosphere, from 280 parts per million, which the planet has maintained for tens of millions of years, to the current 383 ppm. We will pass 400 ppm soon. Many scientists consider 350 ppm as the tipping point, beyond which major ecological changes are triggered.
Rising amounts of CO2 is causing the atmosphere to heat up and climate all over the world to change. One consequence of this, which almost everyone has experienced, is that since 1987 the number of extreme weather events has quadrupled. Hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, cyclones, flooding, earthquakes, forest fires, and other natural disasters are increasing in both frequency and severity all over the world. These natural disasters are disrupting commerce, destroying people’s lives, and costing billions to clean up.
Droughts, for example, are devastating food supplies in Australia, China, India, much of Africa, Latin America and the United States. California just announced a state wide “state of emergency” due to the worst drought in its history. Uruguay, Paraguay, Argentina and Chile have all experienced agricultural emergencies due to drought. Brazil’s soybean and corn crops are declining.
Even the Amazon, normally the largest absorber of carbon dioxide on the planet, has been experiencing drought, and of such proportions that in 2005 rather than absorbing 2 billion tons of CO2, its normal absorption rate, it actually emitted over 3 billion tons of CO2 into the atmosphere. To have the largest carbon absorber on the earth turn into a net producer of CO2 is nothing less than astonishing. Our oceans, also carbon sinks, are also losing their capacity to absorb CO2 due to increased acidity due to warming temperatures.
The heating atmosphere is now causing the ice in both the Arctic and Antarctic to melt at unprecedented rates, and scientists are expecting that the summer melt of the Arctic ice cap will be total by 2012, something that only a few years ago they did not think would happen until 2100. According to a study released by National Geographic, just the ice melt off from Greenland alone is enough to cover the entire state of Texas with four meters of water every 24 hours. If all the ice on Greenland melts, a distinct probability, scientists say that the seas will rise around three meters. Scientists are now reporting that the ice melt off in the Antarctic equals that of the ice melt of in Greenland, so the seas would probably rise a minimum of six meters.
While there are no certainties as to when this would take place, it is prudent to imagine for a moment what this means: Amsterdam, Athens, Calcutta, Hong Kong, London, Los Angeles, Miami, Mumbai, New York, Rio de Janeiro, San Francisco, Sidney, Singapore, and Tokyo will all be affected and all countries bordering any of our oceans will be dramatically transformed. Just imagine the implications of countless millions of people, now living along the ocean, fleeing the coasts for the interior.
This possibility takes on ominous import when one realizes that what is also happening is that the vast tundras of Siberia, frozen for millions of years, are now also melting and the methane gas trapped right underneath the surface is now oozing up through the thawing earth and entering the atmosphere. The reason this is so troubling is because methane emits twenty times more global green house gases than the burning of fossil fuels, and millions of tons of methane are now being released into the atmosphere each and every day. Even the methane trapped in the ocean floor of the Arctic Ocean is being released due to the melting of the ice cap. Global warming due to the release of methane gas now equals all human activity, which means that each year we are spewing into the atmosphere over 64 billion tons of green house gases. While we might be able to radically reduce the 32 billion tons of CO2 humans produce, the 32 billion tons of methane being released is out of our control. It will continue to happen whatever we do, and it is increasing with each passing day.
It is for these and other reasons that when he accepted the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize on behalf of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, Head of the IPCC, said "If there's no action before 2012, that's too late. What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment." Thousands of scientists around the world agree. Lester Brown states bluntly that we are facing the demise of human civilization itself if we do not take action now.
The “Tragic Inaction” of our Governments
So what are our governments doing? Most, like the Obama Administration, talk about the urgency and then make “bold” commitments to reduce carbon emissions by 80% by 2050. The European governments are promising to reduce their CO2 emissions to between 20%-40% of 1990 levels by 2020. These commitments make it appear like they are actually doing something. But a recent study by MIT states that if all the governments completely fulfill their current promises, which essentially are pointed toward reducing carbon emissions by 80% by 2050, we will have reached over 600 ppm of CO2 by then and global temperatures will have risen at least 4 degrees Celsius.
What would this mean? According to the 2006 Stern report, a rise of 4 degrees Celsius would put upwards of 300 million more people at risk of coastal flooding each year, there would be a 30-50% reduction in water availability in southern Africa and the Mediterranean and increased droughts around the world, agricultural yields would decline by 15%-35% in Africa alone and the world would face severe food shortages, and 20%-50% of animal and plant species would face extinction. A 4C rise would also lead to the loss of 85% of the Amazon rainforest.
A 5C rise would mean that all our coastal cities would be threatened by a rising sea levels and increases in ocean acidity would severely disrupt marine ecosystems and fisheries. An increase of more than 5C — equivalent to the amount of warming that occurred between the last ice age and today — is, according to the Stern report, "likely to lead to major disruption and large-scale movement of population." The report concludes that the effects would be "catastrophic" and "far outside human experience."
It is worth bearing in mind that the last time temperatures rose to the levels implied by our situation, rising 5-8 degrees Celsius, was about 55 million years ago when scientists believe the earth was hit by a meteor. As a consequence, the earth experienced dramatic climate change and massive species extinction. It took over 200,000 years for temperatures to return to what we enjoyed during the entire span of human civilization before we unleashed the power of the “free market” onto our environment.
We do not have until 2050 to reduce our carbon emissions by 80%. We need to do this by 2020 and we only have until 2012 to make perhaps the most obvious decision in human history. Yet not a single government in the world is willing to recognize the obvious. Dr. Pachauri recently stated that the governments are engaging in “tragic inaction.” Never before has there been a such a dearth of imagination, courage and leadership.
In the face of a heating planet, in the midst of collapsing economic systems, in the face of an approaching catastrophe “far outside human experience,” we need more than rhetoric. We need a plan. We need a campaign that brings people together - that mobilizes action in ways that make common sense and offer all sectors of society a common good. We need a vision that provides a more viable basis for society’s relationship with the earth. The extremity of our crisis makes it paradoxically possible to create a new world.
A 2020 Vision: Green the World Economy in Ten Years
Put simply: the world must unite in the spirit of John Kennedy’s challenge to put a man on the moon, committing ourselves to a ten year crusade to reduce our carbon emissions by 80% and completely shifting the basis of our economies to renewable energy by 2020. Nothing less than this will suffice to deliver us from the crisis we have engendered. This 2020 Vision is based on science, it is something all nations everywhere equally need to embrace, and it is the only solution to both the crisis of climate change and the renewal of our political economies. All that is lacking is political will, all that is required is leadership.
If we rise to this challenge, if by 2020 we have radically reduced our CO2 emissions to near zero and have completely shifted the basis of our economies to renewable energy, we will have aligned human civilization with the natural systems of the earth, we will have learned how to survive the turbulence that is surely coming because of the climate change already in effect, and we will have rejuvenated our economic systems by making them ecologically realistic.
If capitalism can rise to this challenge, if it can consciously transform itself sufficiently to become ecologically realistic, it might survive in a new form by learning to make profits within the context of sustainability and generating wealth by working within natural systems and for the common good. Focusing on implementing clean green industrial policies will accomplish much of this transformation and, in the process, will generate the global economic boom we need. Dealing decisively with global warming by shifting the basis of our economies to renewable energy is the only way to solve our financial crisis. There is literally no other way.
The most critical element in making a difference is leadership. It is unlikely that this will come from the United States, Europe or Japan, all of which are completely preoccupied with their collapsing financial systems, especially the United States. There is thus a global leadership vacuum, which presents a limited but important window of opportunity for other regions of the world to take the lead.
Brazil in the Lead
The one country that seems poised to exert the leadership required is Brazil. Brazil is one of the largest countries in the world, it is richly endowed with natural resources, its demographics are very similar to that of the world population, it is at peace with all its neighbors, its banks and its economy, though effected by the downturn in the global economy, are relatively stable and strong, and it contains the Amazon. Most importantly, leaders in the Brazilian political, business and civil society sectors understand the urgency, are willing to take leadership, and are mobilizing around the ten year plan to green the Brazilian economy. Many Brazilian companies, such as Cemig, have already transitioned to alternative energy and can be profiled as global leaders. All these reasons make Brazil the perfect nation to take the kind of leadership the world needs at this critical hour.
To both develop and position Brazilian leadership in a global context, State of the World Forum has partnered with the Forum de Lideres Empresariais to promote joint actions with the purpose of mobilizing significant social forces, especially in the private sector, around these issues. The intention is to develop Brazilian leadership in the area of climate change and sustainability and to mobilize a Brazilian and global public education campaign around the 2020 Vision to green the world economy within ten years. The joint activities will emphasize models of sustainability developed in Brazil that can be presented as examples to the world.
The intention of the parties is to work together both in Brazil and globally to develop the partnerships and support for this effort. Working together, they will convene a ten year process of meeting in a major city around the world each year to call attention to the crisis of climate change and mobilize support for the greening of the world economy. The concrete steps that will be jointly developed in this regard are:
1. The promotion of the 2009 State of the World Forum in Washington, D.C. November 12-14, 2009 which will initiate the 2020 Vision and the ten year campaign. As strong Brazilian presence there will promote Brazil as a leader in the global efforts to deal decisively with climate change. The intention of the 2009 Forum is to catalyze a demand for new standards of moral leadership in the face of the greatest crisis humanity has ever faced. Its goal is to empower people everywhere, personally as well as collectively, to create greener and more resilient lifestyles and communities.
2. The second Forum in the global campaign, the 2010 State of the World Forum, will be in Belo Horizonte, with a major concert in Sao Paulo, and a scientific gathering in the Amazon. In 2009, Brazil goes to Washington, in 2010 Washington and the world come to Brazil. The focus of the Brazilian events will be on the new parameters of a sustainable society and economy and Brazil as the central place to discuss critical efforts to deal with climate change and develop green economies.
3. Beyond 2010, the parties will work together to select other countries where Forums can be convened that will emphasize efforts toward sustainability and promote Brazilian leadership.
4. As part of this longer term effort, the two Forums will work together in the development of the Global Transition Initiative, already in development in partnership with the UK based Gaiasoft corporation. The Global Transition Initiative is designed to bring together on line all those leaders prepared to work on ten year plans in their communities, their companies, and their countries, even as we appeal to our governments and concerned citizens everywhere to take immediate and decisive action. The purpose of GTI is to begin a global mobilization independent of government although certainly inviting governments to join.
5. The parties are also developing a Brazilian and global public education campaign designed to popularize these issues and the leadership Brazil is taking. A message of the campaign is simple: What the governments are negotiating for 2050 must be done by 2020. We must unite the world around reducing our carbon emissions by 80% by 2020, shifting the basis of our economies from fossil fuels to alternative energy. The centerpiece of this campaign will be the cartoon story and icons developed by Brazilian social entrepreneur Eduardo Shana. The campaign slogan will be “Join Brazil.”
For Brazil to take this leadership may require acting alone, at least initially, but once the campaign to “Join Brazil” goes global, Brazil will enjoy an avalanche of global recognition and support. This is because of the fact that just as our crisis has reached global proportions, there is a new spirit blowing across our lands, a new value proposition that is emerging, supported by literally hundreds of millions of people and millions of civil society organizations and businesses with the consciousness of what needs to be done. It is remarkable that just as global warming threatens the world and our financial and economic structures are collapsing around the world, new social values are emerging along with the appreciation, skills and technologies that can shape a future sustainable and resilient enough to meet the challenges besetting us. The implications of this emerging wave of change are as profound as the threat of global warming is imminent.
The latest research in the United States, for example, shows that “new progressives” now constitute the largest single voter constituency. Similar trends can be seen in Europe, Japan and in cities and constituencies throughout the global south. Research conducted by sociologist Paul Ray shows that roughly one third of the public is now “culturally creative” and that over 70% supports decisive action on global warming, among other ecological concerns. The important conclusion from this research is that politicians who are willing to speak to progressive values and take decisive action on global warming can win elections and companies that are clean and green will enjoy robust growth.
Brazil’s leadership could not be coming at a more critical juncture in human history. The time has come to discern deeply the implications of the approaching global catastrophe and take decisive action to align our lives and our communities with natural systems. All of us will suffer significantly for what we have already done but if we act decisively and immediately, we may be able to successfully navigate through the turbulence that is coming and emerge out the other side having learned the most important lesson of our collective history, that we are of the earth, not simply on it, and only by living harmoniously with nature will we long survive.
Please join Brazil in this global initiative to change the course of history.
Jim Garrison
President
State of the World Forum
www.worldforum.org
When I returned in 1996 from several years of research in China, two phrases became my mantra--have your kids learn Chinese (and more and more that is happening across the country and around the world) and we are finished economically ---
Ok, we've been really serious here on vaboomer for a looooooooooooong time. It's that winter doldrums thing. Do you remember Howdy Doody? Were you a fan? I tried. I wanted to be. I pretended to be. I was not.
